Demographics as a Game-Changer for the Housing Market – Guest Lecture at TU Munich
- Gunnar Gombert STRATEGY CONSULTING
- Oct 28, 2025
- 3 min read
As part of the course “Real Estate Markets and Investors” taught by Prof. Dr. Gunnar Gombert at the Technical University of Munich, a guest lecture was held with Dr. Heike Piasecki, Head of the Munich Office and Head of Residential & Healthcare Real Estate at bulwiengesa. She provided a concise, data-driven overview of key trends, challenges, and market dynamics in the German residential sector – with a clear focus on the impact of demographic change.
The session offered students and industry participants valuable insights into how demographic developments are reshaping housing demand, supply structures and investment strategies, and why this topic has become one of the most important drivers for politics, the economy, and the real estate industry today.
Demographics Are Shaping Future Housing Demand
Germany is becoming older, smaller, and more diverse – with clear market implications:
Ageing population: By 2040, around 25% of the population will be over 65; demand for age-appropriate housing and care will increase significantly.
Declining labour force: Up to 10% fewer working-age people will reduce economic strength, household income, and housing demand.
Migration remains essential: Without immigration, the population would already be shrinking; regional disparities continue to grow.
Rising single-person households: Single households remain the dominant living arrangement, increasing demand for small, urban, and service-oriented housing formats.
Regional Disparities Are Intensifying
The polarisation between growth regions and shrinking areas is accelerating:
Strong metropolitan regions such as Munich, Berlin, and Hamburg continue to benefit from net migration.
Many peripheral regions are losing population, especially working-age groups.
In ten years, more than twice as many regions could be shrinking than growing.
Implication: In-depth location and target-group expertise will become a key success factor for investors and developers.
Housing Market Under Pressure: Costs, Shortages, and Regulation
The residential market remains tight – yet highly heterogeneous across regions:
Demand remains high, particularly for affordable and age-appropriate housing.
Construction activity declining: Interest rates, construction costs, and regulation continue to slow down completions despite ambitious political targets.
Rising rents in new construction due to high costs and limited supply.
Existing stock gaining strategic relevance – ESG, refurbishment obligations, and energy efficiency are becoming core investment themes.
Implications for the Industry – and for Students
Opportunities arise where residential concepts are sharply aligned with user needs and target groups. Success drivers include:
Life-cycle-oriented concepts (Student Living, Micro Living, Senior Living, Multi-Generational Living)
Serial and modular construction to accelerate delivery
Linking housing with mobility and social infrastructure
Robust market and location analyses as the foundation of all investment decisions
Conclusion
The guest lecture combined data, market analysis, and practical industry insights – a valuable impulse for the next generation of real estate professionals. The key takeaway:
The residential market remains challenging but full of opportunity. Demographics are the long-term structural driver. Those who understand and translate demographic needs into suitable housing solutions will succeed – even in volatile market environments.
About the Speaker
Dr. Heike Piasecki has over 30 years of market experience in residential and healthcare real estate. She leads bulwiengesa’s Munich office and is actively engaged in the ZIA as well as in academic teaching.
